The social sciences have traditionally been quite week in terms of formulating scientific cause-and-effect theories that would be useful for making predictions. In recent years, however, a number of theories with pred... more abstractThe social sciences have traditionally been quite week in terms of formulating scientific cause-and-effect theories that would be useful for making predictions. In recent years, however, a number of theories with predictive potential have come up. The article applies a number of such theories from diverse areas including economics, history, systems theory and evolutionary psychology in an attempt to look into the future world situation. It is found that current political and economic power structures in the world have certain similarities with great empires of the past, but also important differences. Four possible future scenarios are constructed, all of which indicate pervasive changes in the power structures of the world. None of the four scenarios are completely avoiding economic chaos, overexploitation of resources and destruction of environment. The article differs from previous studies in futurology by trying to find the most promising scientific theories from many different areas of science and applying them to some of the important critical and emerging issues of today. It is hoped that this article will inspire future studies of social change that are based more on testable scientific theories and less on ideology and wishful thinking.

Future Studies, Social Theory, Macroeconomics, Development Studies, Peace and Conflict Studies, and 15 more

Social Psychology, Evolutionary Psychology, Human Evolution, Social Anthropology, Peace and Conflict Studies, and 17 more

A range of different scientific disciplines are explored for what they might contribute to an understanding of the economic and other factors that influence mass media, and how the media in turn influence the politica... more abstractA range of different scientific disciplines are explored for what they might contribute to an understanding of the economic and other factors that influence mass media, and how the media in turn influence the political climate and the democratic process in modern democracies. The contributions from the different disciplines are combined into an integrated model of a causal network. This tentative model shows that fierce economic competition forces the media to produce entertaining stories that appeal to people's emotions. Preferred topics include danger, crime, and disaster, which the media select in ways that make the audience perceive the world as more dangerous than it is. This influences the democratic process significantly in the direction of authoritarianism and intolerance. More generally, the competitive news media select and frame stories in ways that hamper the ability of the democratic system to solve internal social problems as well as international conflicts in an optimal way. These effects are unintended consequences of the structure of the media market. The empirical support for each element in the theory, as well as for the integrated model as a whole, is discussed in an appendix."

Sociology, Cultural Studies, Media Sociology, Political Sociology, Social Change, and 35 more

Publication Date: Jul 16, 2003

Publication Name: Paper presented at the 11'th meeting of the International Society for the History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Biology, Vienna, July 16-20, 2003.

Competition takes place in many different spheres of life. This paper compares observations from economics, evolutionary biology, memetics and other fields of study in order to find similarities and differences betwee... more abstractCompetition takes place in many different spheres of life. This paper compares observations from economics, evolutionary biology, memetics and other fields of study in order to find similarities and differences between competition phenomena and their effects in different fields. A tentative framework is constructed for describing different competition phenomena and their effects. A systematic study of competition has many potential applications. For example, the fields of cultural dynamics and political communication could possibly benefit from a more systematic theoretical focus on the effects of competition.

Sociology, Collective Behavior, Cultural Studies, Social Theory, European Studies, and 38 more

Cultural Studies, Social Psychology, Philosophy, Cultural Sociology, Film Studies, and 23 more

Publication Date: 1999

Publication Name: Cultural Selection

Cultural selection theorists and sociologists are so far from each other in terms of concepts and methods that they can hardly communicate and understand each other's theories, even though they are studying the same p... more abstractCultural selection theorists and sociologists are so far from each other in terms of concepts and methods that they can hardly communicate and understand each other's theories, even though they are studying the same phenomena. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these two paradigms are discussed. As both paradigms have something valuable to offer, which the other hasn't, there is every reason to try to reconcile the two. This paper offers some suggestions as to why the sociological tradition has drifted away from the methods of the natural sciences, which cultural selection theory adheres to. The communication gap between the two camps is analyzed in terms of cognitive psychology, and some suggestions for bridging the gap are offered.

Sociology, Philosophy of Science, Cultural Sociology, Cultural Theory, Memetics (Evolutionary Biology), and 2 more

This paper introduces the cultural r/k theory – an evolutionary theory that explains why different cultures evolve in different directions. The cultural r/k theory links differences in artistic style with war and peac... more abstractThis paper introduces the cultural r/k theory – an evolutionary theory that explains why different cultures evolve in different directions. The cultural r/k theory links differences in artistic style with war and peace, geography, political system and religion. This theory is useful for explaining cultural differences, for classifying artefacts and for predicting sampling bias in the archaeological record.

Archaeology, Evolutionary Archaeology, Cultural Evolution, and Cultural Selection (Archaeology)

Publication Date: Sep 4, 2006

Publication Name: Theoretical and Methodological Issues in Evolutionary Archaeology. Proceedings of the XV World congress of the International Union for Prehistoric and Protohistoric Sciences, Lisbon 2006

Publication Date: 2000

There is a lack of good pseudo-random number generators capable of utilizing the vector processing capabilities and multiprocessing capabilities of modern computers. A suitable generator must have a feedback path long... more abstractThere is a lack of good pseudo-random number generators capable of utilizing the vector processing capabilities and multiprocessing capabilities of modern computers. A suitable generator must have a feedback path long enough to fit the vector length or permit multiple instances with different parameter sets. The risk that multiple random streams from identical generators have overlapping subsequences can be eliminated by combining two different generators. Combining two generators can also increase randomness by remedying weaknesses caused by the need for mathematical tractability. Larger applications need higher precision. The article discusses hitherto ignored imprecisions caused by quantization errors in the application of generators with prime modulus and when generating uniformly distributed integers with an arbitrary interval length. A C++ software package that overcomes all these problems is offered. The RANVEC1 code combines a Mersenne Twister variant and a multiply-with-carry generator to produce vector output. It is suitable for processors with vector sizes up to 512 bits. Some theorists have argued that there is no theoretical proof that the streams from different generators are statistically independent. The article contends that the request for such a proof misunderstands the nature of the problem, and that the mathematical tractability that would allow such a proof would also defeat it. This calls for a more fundamental philosophical discussion of the status of proofs in relation to deterministic pseudo-random sequences.

Open Source Software, Pseudo-Random Number Generator, and Software Optimization

Location: http://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/jmasm/vol14/iss1/23/

Journal Name: Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods 14, no. 1 (2015): 308–34.

Publication Date: Dec 15, 2015

Two different probability distributions are both known in the literature as “the” noncentral hypergeometric distribution. Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution can be described by an urn model without repl... more abstractTwo different probability distributions are both known in the literature as “the” noncentral hypergeometric distribution. Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution can be described by an urn model without replacement with bias. Fisher's noncentral hypergeometric distribution is the conditional distribution of independent binomial variates given their sum. No reliable calculation method for Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution has hitherto been described in the literature. Several new methods for calculating probabilities from Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution are derived. Range of applicability, numerical problems, and efficiency are discussed for each method. Approximations to the mean and variance are also discussed. This distribution has important applications in models of biased sampling and in models of evolutionary systems.

Publication Date: 2008

Publication Name: Communications in Statistics-simulation and Computation

Several methods for generating variates with univariate and multivariate Walleniu' and Fisher's noncentral hypergeometric distributions are developed. Methods for the univariate distributions include: simulation of ur... more abstractSeveral methods for generating variates with univariate and multivariate Walleniu' and Fisher's noncentral hypergeometric distributions are developed. Methods for the univariate distributions include: simulation of urn experiments, inversion by binary search, inversion by chop-down search from the mode, ratio-of-uniforms rejection method, and rejection by sampling in the τ domain. Methods for the multivariate distributions include: simulation of urn experiments, conditional method, Gibbs sampling, and Metropolis-Hastings sampling. These methods are useful for Monte Carlo simulation of models of biased sampling and models of evolution and for calculating moments and quantiles of the distributions.

Publication Date: 2008

Publication Name: Communications in Statistics-simulation and Computation

A known cycle length has hitherto been considered an indispensable requirement for pseudorandom number generators. This requirement has restricted random number generators to suboptimal designs with known deficiencies... more abstractA known cycle length has hitherto been considered an indispensable requirement for pseudorandom number generators. This requirement has restricted random number generators to suboptimal designs with known deficiencies. The present article shows that the requirement for a known cycle length can be avoided by including a self-test facility. The distribution of cycle lengths is analyzed theoretically and experimentally. As an example, a class of chaotic random number generators based on bit-rotation and addition are analyzed theoretically and experimentally. These generators, suitable for Monte Carlo applications, have good randomness, long cycle lengths, and higher speed than other generators of similar quality.

Pseudo-Random Number Generator

Publication Date: 2001

Limitations on the response of electronically-conducting oxides as pH sensors are demonstrated. PtO2, IrO2, RuO2, OsO2, Ta2O5 and TiO2 showed near-Nernstian behavior in the pH range 2–12 in air-saturated solutions. In... more abstractLimitations on the response of electronically-conducting oxides as pH sensors are demonstrated. PtO2, IrO2, RuO2, OsO2, Ta2O5 and TiO2 showed near-Nernstian behavior in the pH range 2–12 in air-saturated solutions. Interferences from selected reducing and oxidizing agents and from some complexing anions were measured and catalogued. No interference from monovalent cations (Group IA) was observed. Several reaction mechanisms are proposed and discussed.

Publication Date: 1984

Publication Name: Sensors and Actuators